DeMarco Murray or Felix Jones 2012?

At the beginning of the 2011 season, DeMarco Murray was only held as a handcuff for Felix Jones. He did poorly, only posting 63 total YRDs through 5 games. But something happened, during Felix Jones’ injury, that made Jones the handcuff for Murray, instead. Murray posted his first 100+ YRD game of the season, and he ended up posting 253 YRDs and a score! And that wasn’t all! He posted 348 YRDs in the next 3 games! Jones was only a backup RB, but then another thing happened. Murray got injured. And so Jones is once again the starting RB for the Cowboys. He does well, posting 238 YRDs over 3 games. So who is better? Murray or Jones?

When they both get the same amount of touches

Murray and Jones have both been injured. When they play together, the results are biased because one player is the starter, the other is the backup  So let’s focus different games that they got the same amount of touches. Against TB,  Jones got 22 ATT for 108 YRDs, an AVG 4.9 YPC. Versus SEA, Murray got 22 touches for 139 Yards for a 6.3 AVG. Obviously, Murray did better. But let’s see another 22 ATT game for Murray.Versus MIA, 87 YRDs, 4.0 AVG YPC. If we combine Murray’s two 22 ATT games, we get a 5.1 YPC, and 113 Yards in those 2 games. So Murray did better than Jones.

When they both get the same defense

You understand the title, right? Let’s compare. Against the brick wall of a DEF, SF. Murray gets 6 carries for 21 yards. Jones gets 9 carries for 25 yards. Murray gets better YPC (3.5), and Jones gets 2.8 YPC. They almost got the same touches, and so Murray triumphs again.

Total stats

Stat        Murray        Jones

ATT          164                 116

R YRD      897                545

YPC           5.5                  4.7

LNG           91                     41

REC            26                    26

RE YRD    183                 174

RE YPC     7.0                 6.7

Although Murray played two more games than Jones, Murray started in 7 games, Jones started in 8.

Bottom line

Murray is a better back than Jones, but Jones will still get some touches. Jones should only be held as a handcuff at this time, and Murray should be drafted in the late 2nd round/early 3rd round.

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Top 10 RBs for 2012 season

Usually drafted first on a FF team, RBs are an important factor in your game. Unlike WRs who normally don’t ever rush an entire seson, RBs can also play the WR role, and depending on your RB, he might be a strong two dimensional back who helps you when your WRs don’t do their share. Arian Foster leads off as the best back in 2012.

1. Arian Foster

Arian Foster played really well this year, posting over 1,200 YRDs, and that was with RB Ben Tate also sharing carries. He was a big factor in the Texans pass game, posting over 600 YRDs. His speed and agility are a big factor, and with Fred Jackson sharing carries with CJ Spiller, Foster is undoubtedly the best RB in the NFL.

Projected RUS YRDs: 1,390

Projected REC YRDs: 650

2. LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy was a great RB in 2011, rushing for 1,300 YRDs, but that was partly due to Michael Vick’s (who would take some of McCoy’s carries away) absence. Look for McCoy to be a top back next year. He’ll be stronger and more mature. Plus, with Fred Jackson out of the way, McCoy will have the 2nd spot.

Projected YRDs: 1,300

Projected REC: 45

3. Ray Rice

Rice was a great back and a great receiver, rushing to the tune of 1,300 YRDs, 76 REC, and 704 REC YRDs. Rice also was not injured at all this season, playing in all 17 games. He is a safe pick, one that won’t disappoint ever. And with an unstable QB in Joe Flacco, the Ravens will be forced to give the ball back to Rice

Projected  RUS YRDs: 1,200

Projected REC YRDs: 700

4. Maurice Jones-Drew

Jones-Drew was arguably the best RB in 2011, as he was the League leader in YRDs, and RUSH YPG. He wasn’t as great of a receiver as Rice, however, but that was mainly because of rookie QB Blaine Gabbert’s poor play. He still wasn’t entirely a ghost in the pass game, as he posted an normal 374 YRDs in the air. If Gabbert gets better, Jones-Drew will have a monster 2012 season.

Projected RUS YRDs: 1,550

Projected RUSH YPG: 101.5

5. Matt Forte

Forte was a nice solid back in 2011, posting 997 YRDS on the ground, 490 YRDs in the air, but sadly, Marion Barber was the TD back, and Forte only got 4 total TDs (1 REC, 3 RUS). To add to that, Forte also missed Weeks 14, 15, 16, and 17, due to a knee injury. If Forte has no setbacks, he will have a lot of YRDs.

Projected Total YRDs: 1,700

Projected REC: 60

6. Darren McFadden

McFadden was a beast in 2011, but he was lost to a foot injury in week 7. I ranked him this high because his YPC avg was 5.4, a great YPC. And Michael Bush is gone to the Bears.  If he plays in each 2012 game, he is due for a breakout season.

Projected Total TDs: 11

Projected Total YRDs: 1,350

7. Adrian Peterson

Definitely under performing, Peterson had only 970 YRDs, and also had a few weeks worth of injuries. But he should be able to jump back and maybe even catch a few passes from Ponder. Without injuries, he should one of the top RBs in the league because he has shown he can do that. But don’t get fooled; don’t pick AP too high.

Projected RUS YRDs: 1,300

Projected TDs: 14

8. Marshawn Lynch

2011 League Ranks: 7th in NFL in YDS (1,204), 10th in NFL in RUSH YPG (80.3), 3rd in NFL in TD (12). Pretty good stats, and that’s why I put him on the list. He can be a 3rd round pick if you have a lot of teams, or even a 2nd. But he is a “matchup” guy. Make sure to start him with a good matchup.

Projected ATT: 295

Projected YRDs: 1,200

9. Jamaal Charles

Charles is the guy to get if you want home run threat. Ending up in the top 5 RBs in 2010, Jamaal Charles was looked at to continue his hot streak into 2011. That didn’t happen. Instead, Charles was done after just playing 2 games. That’s why he’s questionable. My guess: Don’t ever blow your first pick, so try him in the 2nd round at the highest; probably lower.

Projected YRDs(this one is harder): 1,250

Projected YPC: 5.2

10. Ryan Mathews

After Tolbert left the Chargers, Mathews value went up. After VJax left, it went up even more. Now the Chargers are left to find a good WR, and if they don’t find one before the 2012 season, they will be forced to give Mathews the ball more often. Plus, with Rivers’ inconsistent play, they’ll have to give it to him even more.

Projected ATT: 320

Projected YRDs: 1,350

Other RBs to watch: Steven Jackson(Rams), DeMarco Murray(Cowboys), Mikel Leshoure(Lions), Reggie Bush(Dolphins), Benjarvus Green-Ellis(Bengals), and Frank Gore(49ers).

Note: This sheet does not include incoming rookie RBs.

Football Polls

Gronk Sets The TE Single Season Record

Rob Gronkowski broke the TE single season record with his 14th and 15th TD against the Skins. Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis each previously held the record with 13 TDs. With the season still going, Gronk will get more TDs as the season progresses. Gronk and Graham are the top 2 TE options right now.

Felix Jones and More Great Waiver Wire Pickups

1. Felix Jones, DAL RB

A few weeks ago, I told you to pick up RB DeMarco Murray, backup to the at that time injured Felix Jones. Now, Murray is sidelined for the year with a broken foot. Jones did well in his place, carrying 16 times for 106 yards, an average of 6.6 YPC. And with a very favorable matchup vs. TB, Felix is going to be a nice RB play.

2. Marion Barber, CHI RB

With Cutler and Forte out, Barber has stepped up and shown he can prosper. The past four games he has a 4.2 YPC AVG. He will run the ball a lot, and will be a nice play at Flex or RB2.

3. Cedric Benson, CIN RB

Benson has a great YPC average of 4.0 YPC, and facing off against the “Swiss Cheese” “Get well” Rams DEF, and with rookie Andy Dalton getting snaps, Benson will rack up some numbers.

4. Demaryius Thomas, DEN WR

Tebow is getting better, and Thomas has been having some good games lately. His next game is against the terrible pass DEF, NE. Look to him to give you a playoff boost.

5. John Kasay, NO K

Drew Brees can get downfield, he can throw touchdowns, but sometimes, NO will look to Kasay to do the job of getting points, who is playing MIN, the worst Kicking DEF in the NFL.

6. Tim Tebow, DEN QB

Tebow is getting better, and his rushing can’t be stopped. RB Willis MaGahee is playing poorly, so Tebow will air the ball out more. Expect him to get some points against NE.

Week 15 Injury Report

Greg Jennings may have a torn MCL, Jimmy Graham will have an MRI on his back, and DeMarco Murray will miss the rest of the season with a broken foot. Jeremy Maclin (hamstring), Deion Branch (groin), Matt Hasselbeck (calf) and Steve (or Stevie) Johnson (hand) also suffered/re-aggravated various injuries on Sunday. Graham is Probable, Haselbeck, Branch, Maclin, and Johnson are Questionable, and Murray and Jennings are Out (both for the season).

The Chris Johnson Dilemma

Chris Johnson is very unpredictable. One game, he’ll get you 1 point, then he’ll get you 10, etc. Well, let’s look at his stats.

Stats

Johnson’s first game was against the Jaguars. They don’t have too bad of a run defense. 9 ATT, 24 YRDs. 2.7 AVG. Now remember, 3.5 or more is a good AVG. So clearly, Johnson underperformed.

Johnson’s 2nd game: Baltimore. Baltimore has a pretty good run DEF. Let’s look at his stats for that game. 24 ATT, 53 YRDs. 2.2 AVG. Terrible! Ok, it’s against Baltimore, but still, you gotta get more than 2.2 yards per carry.

3rd game: Broncos.  How many YRDs do you think he got? AVG? 13 ATT, 21 YRDs. 1.6 AVG. Seriously! ONE POINT SIX YPC! If the season ended that game, I would grade him F-.

Johnson played his fourth game at the Browns’ stadium. 23 ATT, 101 YRDs, 4.4 AVG. Alright. Finally, his first 100 yard game of the season! Maybe he’s getting better….

P.S. No TDs yet.

5th: Steelers. Pretty good run DEF. Let’s see if the breakout game was just one of CJ2K’s flukes. 14 ATT, 51 YRDs, 3.6 AVG. 1 TD. Finally! He’s back! Right?

Next game is vs. the Texans. Ready? 10 ATT, 18 YRDs, 1.8 AVG, LNG : 3. <Sigh> 18 YRDs! His longest was a 3 YRD dash! I see a longer than 3 YRD season awaiting.

Vs. Colts. The at that time like 0-6 Colts. The Curtis Painter Colts. The w/o Peyton Manning Colts. His Stats? 14 ATT, 34 YRDs. 2.4 AVG. What is wrong? Where is the real CJ2K?

His 8th game is vs the Bengals. Mediocre run DEF. Once again, 14 ATT. This time 64 YRDs. This time, 4.6 AVG. Remember, 3.5 AVG and up is good. So Johnson did well.

Still with me? 9th game, Panthers. Great matchup, as the Panthers have a bad run DEF. Will he do well? 27 ATT, 130 YRDs, 4.8 avg, LNG : 25. 1 TD. Chris-Johnson-the-unpredictable has succeeded!

Falcon time. This is probably his WORST career game. Ready? 12 ATT, 13 YRDs. 1.1 AVG. LNG : 6 YRDs. Wow. Chris? Are you feeling OK?

Alright, were almost over. Most recent game, TB. 23 ATT, 190 YRDs, 8.3 AVG, LNG : 34 Yarder. His longest was a season high, so was his AVG and his YRDs.

Totals? 183 ATT,699 YRDs, 3.8 AVG, LNG : 34. Grading his YRDs, D-, AVG : C+/B-. Overall, D+.

Bottom Line

Chris Johnson is too unpredictable. Even against poor run DEFs. Don’t try to pick him up, and if you own him, don’t plan on starting him all the time.

P.S. He will play the poor Bills run DEF. I would start him if i had no other good options. But think twice about starting him. He can’t always be trusted.

Week 12 Sit/Start Advice

  1. Start Andre Johnson.

He’s ready to go, and although Matt Leinart is throwing to him, he’s gonna at least get some receptions. He’s a good player, and just cause a bad QB is throwing to him, it’s not time to sit him.

2. Start Matt Forte (and if you have Barber, throw him in too)

With Caleb Hanie getting snaps, it’s not likely he’s gonna throw much. He’ll probably rely on the running game (Matt Forte and Marion Barber).

3. Sit Chris Johnson

It’s time for Javon Ringer to step up. Johnson got a meager 12 carries and 13 yards. He’s not going anywhere with that.

4. Sit Devon Hester and Johnny Knox

Like I said, Hanie will not throw the ball often, and so WRs Hester and Knox will not get many receptions.

Injury Report Week 12

Wow. It’s already Week 12. Here are the injuries suffered week 11: Adrian Peterson (ankle), Fred Jackson (calf), Greg Jennings (shin), James Starks (knee) and Matt Hasselbeck (elbow) all missed snaps on Sunday, and Jay Cutler (thumb) may be out for the season. Rumors will tell you Peterson has a chance to play next week; I don’t. Jackson is doubtful, Jennings and Hasselbeck are probable, Starks is questionable, Jay Cutler and AP are out. Check back for more posts!

More Waiver Wire Pickups

 

1. Reggie Bush

I bet a few weeks ago you would of thought me crazy if I told you this: it’s time to pick up Reggie Bush. The past few weeks he’s been posting double-digit numbers, including a two touchdown wonder in week 10. That’s some fantasy numbers.

 

2. Brandon Lloyd

I know. He’s owned in 95% of all Yahoo! leagues. But you can still trade for him. Here’s the deal. The Rams’ offensive coordinator used to be Lloyd’s head coach on the Broncos.  That means that Lloyd will be more known and more plays on him will be made. If you’re thinking of trading him, think twice.  (or thrice)

3. Marshawn Lynch

This time, Lynch is owned in only 83% of Yahoo! leagues. He has a season average of 11.20 Yahoo! standard points (anything >10 is good). In fact, Lynch scored an incredible 22.70 points(Yahoo!)! Believe me; you want him.